For the 1st time in over a year, both Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s forecast are the same! Both predict that:
- Purchase activity will be similar to 2nd half of 2011 – Stable is good
- Property values are expected to hold steady for the year – No Declines!
- Rates will remain at very low levels for 1st half of 2012
- Refinances will consume 85%-90% of Mortgage applications through June
What this means to the Realtor Community:
- Put yourself first, if you have not refinanced – now is the time!
- Lenders will be consumed by administering all the HARP program changes
- Loan Originators will be fired up to write refinance loans
- Only 20% of Purchase leads have a chance to materialize into a closing due to limited inventory
- 40% of Refinance Leads turn into done deals
We also came across some local Realtor production numbers for 2011. Out of 2000 local area agents, we found:
- Average sale volume – $3.6 Million – 30 Transactions
- Median (middle) sale volume – $2.5 Million – 20 Transactions
Our Question to you – Do you believe 2012 will be better or equal to 2011?
PLEASE Comment below and share your thoughts as we love to hear from our business partners and learn valuable insight into our market.
Well done Ken and Kirk. As an agent I am seeing exactly what Fannie and Freddie have predicted. Lower inventory sending prices up. Great rates attracting buyers, with the lack of inventory it is creating a sense of urgency for the buyer. Nice talk love the earth shaking numbers. FYI 2011 production 80 transactions, 13 million sold. Looking for a 10 % increase in 2012.
Ken and Kirk, Thanks for your update. I love statistics myself, Although I never listen to forecasts, I do agree with Fannie/Freddie’s stable pricing for this next year. I have seen this for the past year also. Personally I had the best numbers that I have ever had in 18 years last year both in units and sales. My plan is to do more than that this year also!
Donna Charlick
Good points and it is great to hear about your 2011. The interesting point about the forecasts for us is Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and The Mortgage Banker’s Assoc all were very similar in their expectations for 2012 regarding mortgage applications, interest rates, and property values. All three being on the “same page” has not happened in a long time!
I want to believe 2012 will be better, but I expect 2012 to be about the same, until there is a change in Washington.